The impact of nicotine limits in Denmark

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New research warns Denmark's proposed nicotine cap could reverse progress in cutting smoking and trigger health and economic fallout.

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Overview

Denmark has emerged as a tobacco harm reduction leader, slashing smoking rates from 19% to 14% in just five years. But that progress is under threat.

A new study by the Tholos Foundation, IPSOS and HBS Economics highlights the risks of a proposed nicotine limit of 9mg per pouch—legislation that could effectively ban 90% of current products.

Download full report: Progressive Regulation for Nicotine Pouches in Denmark

Consumer Response

  • 50% of pouch users say they would continue buying illegally or across borders.
  • 18% say they would go back to smoking.
  • 40% would switch to other nicotine products.

The impact? A likely rise in smoking rates and growth in unregulated markets.

Public Health Risks

  • 75% of users choose nicotine pouches to reduce or quit smoking.
  • 33% believe pouches are safer than cigarettes.
  • Over 80% of users believe these products help reduce smoking rates—and want government support for safer alternatives.

Economic Fallout

  • Retail losses: DKK 400 million in 2025, rising to DKK 600 million by 2030
  • Tax revenue loss: DKK 296 million in 2025, rising to DKK 435 million by 2030
  • Total projected revenue losses (retail + tax): over DKK 1 billion

Consumer Sentiment

  • More than half of Danish adults oppose the proposed nicotine limit.
  • 4 in 5 pouch users view these products as critical to staying off cigarettes.
  • Consumers also support stricter youth protections and education—without penalizing adult access.

Denmark’s proposed nicotine cap may seem like a public health step forward—but evidence shows it could be a leap backward.

The data is clear: this policy risks a return to smoking, booming black markets, and billions in economic losses. To truly reduce harm, Denmark must protect access to safer alternatives—not restrict them.

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