Australia's war on tobacco is leading to violence

Overview

In a detailed report from Reason.com, journalist Jacob Grier outlines how Australia’s once-celebrated public health campaign against smoking has sparked a violent and unintended consequence: a black market gang war over nicotine.

Since 2023, more than 100 firebombings across Victoria have been linked to criminal turf wars—not over illicit drugs, but legal nicotine products. Australia's aggressive tobacco control policies—including sky-high cigarette taxes, prescription-only vape access, and sweeping bans—have pushed millions into illicit markets. Now, rival gangs are fighting for control, and innocent tobacconists are being targeted.

Source: “The Deadly Tobacco Drug War Down Under” – Reason.com (June 2024)

More than 100 arson attacks have struck tobacco retailers in Victoria since March 2023. Police link most to gang-related extortion and turf wars.

Once a poster child for tobacco control, Australia now finds itself in the midst of a drug war over legal nicotine. Criminologist James Martin says the country’s policies have become “de facto prohibition,” where buying vapes or cigarettes legally is nearly impossible for many Australians.

Cigarettes cost over AUD $40 per pack, while getting a vape requires a prescription from a doctor—and few will write one. As a result, over 90% of the country’s 1.8 million vapers turn to illegal sources. That includes smuggled products, underground retailers, and disposable vapes from China.

In response, the government is doubling down. New legislation proposes jail terms of up to 7 years for unauthorized possession or supply of vaping products. But critics say these policies are criminalizing smokers while fueling organized crime.

Former customs officers and harm reduction advocates agree: Australia has created a “low risk, high profit” illegal market—perfect conditions for gangs. The same enforcement tactics used in the war on drugs are being repeated—with equally grim consequences.

What’s happening in Australia is more than policy failure—it’s a cautionary tale. Prohibition has not only failed to stop nicotine use, it’s made it far more dangerous.

Organized crime thrives, young people still access products easily, and tobacconists face violence. Meanwhile, safer alternatives like vaping are harder to obtain than cigarettes.

As countries around the world weigh similar restrictions—flavor bans, nicotine caps, generational phase-outs—Australia’s story offers a powerful lesson: prohibition breeds black markets. And black markets breed violence.