Prohibition Doesn’t Work: Australia and Brazil Show How Nicotine Bans Backfire

25 August 2025. Two new international analyses from the think tanks network Prohibition Does Not Work have demonstrated the failure of prohibiting cigarette alternatives such as nicotine pouches and e-cigarettes. These landmark reports detail the overwhelming evidence on how rather than protect public health, prohibition creates black markets, fuels youth access, and increases smoking rates.

The evidence demonstrates that de facto e-cigarette prohibition in Australia has led to: 

• 93% of vapers purchasing products illegally and only 1 in 1,700 vape transactions are legal.
• An explosion of crime: The black market is now worth AUD $1–2 billion (USD $660 million – $1.3 billion). Over 200 arson attacks and multiple murders are linked to turf wars.
• A surge in underage vaping and smoking rates increasing: 14.6% of teens were current vapers in 2025 while national smoking rate increased to 13.6% in early 2025.

In Brazil a complete prohibition has led to: 

• Almost 3 million Brazilians using illegal e-cigarettes
• Regulatory failure has led to almost 1.1 million teenagers as regular vapers, with smoking rates amongst adults jumping from 9.3% in 2020 to 11.6% 2024.
• Toxic products flood streets: Seizeaad devices contain fentanyl, amphetamines and THC.
• Organised crime thrives: Major cartels now control smuggling and distribution, often selling products with deadly additives

“What connects Australia and Brazil is the catastrophic failure of prohibition. Wherever bans are tried, the result is the same: crime, chaos, and more smoking. The solution is already working in countries like Sweden, New Zealand, and the UK. We urge policymakers to follow the evidence.” - Tim Andrews, Director of Consumer Issues at the Tholos Foundation

“Australia’s prohibition on nicotine vapes and overly restrictive tobacco laws have done nothing to curb demand, they’ve simply pushed both products into the hands of organised crime. The result is a thriving black market where gangs fight over territory, stores are firebombed, and violence spills onto our streets, all while consumers are left with unregulated, potentially dangerous products and taxpayers foot the bill for the chaos.” - Brian Marlow, Executive Director of the Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance 

“"With 100 % of e-cigarette consumption and supply now illegal due to a nationwide ban, Brazil still has up to 2.9 million e-cigarette users and a booming black market dominated by organized crime and products with no safety standards. Prohibition clearly does not work" – Executive Director, Livre Mercado

Prohibition Does Not Work calls on governments worldwide to end failed bans and de facto prohibitions and adopt science-based harm reduction regulatory frameworks with age verification and product standards to follow proven models from successful harm-reduction countries. 

To access the full reports, visit: www.prohibitiondoesnotwork.com/resources

Media contact: media@prohibitiondoesnotwork.com