EU Tobacco Review Risks Driving Smoking and Illicit Trade, Warns Global Coalition

 EU Tobacco Review Risks Driving Smoking and Illicit Trade, Warns Global Coalition

Prohibition Does Not Work (PDNW), a global coalition of think tanks and consumer advocates, today criticized the European Union’s latest tobacco policy evaluation for ignoring growing evidence and reinforcing policies that have been proven to fail in practice.

“European policymakers are doubling down on measures that evidence shows do not achieve their stated goals,” said Tim Andrews, Director of Consumer Issues at Americans for Tax Reform and spokesperson for PDNW. “When safer alternatives are restricted, people do not stop using nicotine. They either return to smoking or shift to illicit markets. That outcome has been repeatedly demonstrated across multiple jurisdictions.”

The EU’s evaluation promotes further restrictions, including extending cigarette-style measures to reduced-risk products.

“That reflects a fundamental misreading of both the science and real-world outcomes,” Andrews said. “These products are materially different from cigarettes. Policies that fail to account for that distinction risk protecting the most harmful products while limiting access to the least harmful.”

PDNW pointed to evidence from within the European Union itself. In the Netherlands, following a flavour ban, 69% of users continue to access banned products through illicit or cross-border channels.

“Evidence from Europe and globally shows that prohibition does not eliminate demand,” Andrews said. “It displaces it into unregulated markets and undermines public health objectives.”

PDNW warned that such policies risk reversing progress in reducing smoking.

“If the objective is to reduce smoking prevalence, restricting lower-risk alternatives produces the opposite effect,” Andrews said. “More smoking, less control, and expanded illicit trade.”

Michael Ellis, former Assistant Director at Interpol and PDNW advisor, highlighted the enforcement consequences.

“This is exactly how illicit markets develop and expand,” Ellis said. “When legal supply is removed, criminal syndicates move in to fill the gap. These networks operate without quality controls, without age restrictions, and with significant financial incentives. The result is a more dangerous and more difficult environment for law enforcement.”

“Prohibition does not eliminate demand,” Ellis added. “It transfers control of the market to organized criminal actors and increases the scale and complexity of enforcement challenges.”

PDNW contrasted the EU’s approach with successful international models.

“Sweden has embraced harm reduction and achieved some of the lowest smoking rates in Europe,” Andrews said. “That is what evidence-based policy looks like. It reduces harm by encouraging substitution away from combustible tobacco rather than restricting it.”

PDNW called on European policymakers to reconsider the direction of tobacco regulation.

“Policy should follow evidence,” Andrews said. “The evidence is clear that prohibition fails. Governments should adopt evidence-based, progressive policies that are proven to reduce smoking, protect consumers, and maintain regulatory control.”